Farm negative income effects Brexit 2016 Statistic

This statistic shows the share of farms experiencing negative income effects following a WTO default position and EU Common Customs Tariff (CCT) scenario after Brexit in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2025, by sector. Following a WTO default position and a continuation of current levels of direct payments, no farms would experience changes to income. However, if there was to be a decrease in direct payments following the end of the Common Agricultural Policy payments currently received, all farming sectors would experience a decrease in income by 2025, particularly sheep or goat farmers.

Share of farms experiencing negative income effects following a WTO default position and EU Common Customs Tariff (CCT) scenario after Brexit in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2025, by sector*

Characteristic	WTO+50%DP	WTO+0%DP
Sheep / goats	91%	97%
Cattle	84.5%	96%
Fieldcrops	71.5%	96%
Mixed	72%	92.5%
Milk	17.5%	71.5%
Poultry	3.5%	18%
Pigs	10.5%	17.5%
Horticulture	4%	8%

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Release date

March 2017

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Region

United Kingdom

Survey time period

2016

Supplementary notes

Date of access is date of release.

* These estimates are based on the use of the economic model AGMEMOD, widely used in the past by the European Commission and other member states. The model simulates changes in the UK's net trade position by taking into account changes to farmgate prices, production and consumption for a range of agricultural commodities in the UK. The results are presented against a baseline, which estimates the situation in the UK in 2025, if the UK were to remain in the EU. These results are then fed into another economic tool, the EU's Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), to give a combined impact on UK farm incomes. Farm support scenarios are also taken into account to consider direct income support following the end of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Thus:
WTO+100%DP = EU Common Customs Tariff (CCT) + current levels of direct payments.
WTO+50%DP = EU Common Customs Tariff (CCT) + reduction in direct payments of 50%.
WTO+0%DP = EU Common Customs Tariff (CCT) + abolition of direct payments.

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