Net favorability for Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer in the UK 2022-2024

In May 2024, the net favorability rating for the current British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak was -51 percent, while for Keir Starmer, the leader of the Opposition, it was -17 percent. Although both leaders have low favorability with the British public, Sunak's popularity has fallen far more than Starmer's has during this time period. Additionally, during this same month, 34 percent of people thought Starmer would be the best person for the job of Prime Minister, compared with 18 percent who thought Rishi Sunak.

Labour in pole position to win the next election

Towards the end of May 2024, Rishi Sunak announced that the next UK general election will happen on July 4, 2024. In this election, the Labour Party is predicted to win an overall majority, the first time the party has won a general election since 2005. The Conservative's by contrast, look certain to be heading for a spell in opposition, after emerging as the largest party in the last four UK elections. Recent election polls have put them far behind Labour for several months, while a populist right-wing party, Reform UK, has grown in popularity at the Conservative's expense. 

Will an improving economy save Sunak?

Since coming to power in late 2022, Sunak's time in office has coincided with a tough economic environment. The Cost of Living Crisis, driven by high inflation, pushed many UK households to the brink, while the overall economy, has struggled to grow at a consistent pace. As of May 2024, however, there has been some positive economic news. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 was 0.6 percent, the fastest the economy has grown since the end of 2021. CPI inflation, meanwhile, was 2.3 percent in May 2024, the lowest rate in three years. Although unlikely at this stage, re-establishing themselves as the best party for handling the economy would give the Conservative's a much better chance come July.