Voting intention in Germany 2021-2024

As of the 24th of April 2024, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are the most popular political party in Germany, with 30 percent of prospective voters indicating that they would vote for the party if the next election to the German parliament were held that week. The CDU/CSU has seen a remarkable turn-around in its fortunes since the previous German federal election, when the party recorded its worst ever result in a nation-wide vote, securing only 24.1 percent of the vote. The party had struggled since the stepping down of its long-time chancellor, Angela Merkel, before the 2021 election. As dissatisfaction with the current governing coalition - known as the 'Ampel' coalition - of the Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals has increased, the Christian Democrats, now led by Friedrich Merz, have won increasing support. 

The Ampel's woes continue in 2024 

The Ampel coalition came to power in 2021 due to the surprise surge in support for the Social Democrats, who secured almost 26 percent of the vote in that election. Unwilling to re-enter a 'grand coalition' with the Christian Democrats, the SPD instead opted to create a coalition with the center-left environmentalist party, the Greens, and the free-market neoliberal party, the FDP. This unlikely coalition which promised to "dare to make more progress" (mehr Fortschritt wagen) has instead been mired by constant infighting between the three parties, as well as being hit by several external crises, most notably Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. At the same time, the German economy's post-pandemic recovery has faltered, with the country being one of the few European countries to experience a recession in 2023, while one of the government's key economic plans - a special investment fund designed to bypass the constitutional debt brake - was struck down by the constitutional court in Karlsruhe. 

These factors have led to consistently declining support for the three governing parties, with the latest poll showing their combined share of the vote being only 33 percent, slightly more than the vote share of the Christian Democrats. While the Greens' vote share would remain roughly equal to what they achieved in 2021, the popularity of the SPD and FDP has collapsed compared to their 2021 levels. The Social Democrats are now the third most popular party in Germany, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party on track to achieve their worst election result since 1887. The Liberals (FDP), on the other hand, look likely to not gain any seats in the parliament at all in the next election, as they are currently falling below the five percent threshold to enter the Bundestag (federal parliament). 

The rise of the far-right in German politics

The Ampel's loss has been the far-right's gain, as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has seen its fortunes rise consistently in opinion polls since the 2021 election. The party was originally founded to oppose plans for the EU to provide bailouts to struggling member states during the Eurozone debt crisis in the early 2010s, however, following the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis the party pivoted towards a hardline anti-immigration stance. Since then, the AfD has drifted consistently to the right, with one of the dominant factions, known as Der Flügel ("the wing"), being labelled far-right extremists and even, in some cases, fascists. While the federal-level party is currently led by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupulla, members of the more moderate faction of the party, at the regional-level the party is often led by more extreme figures, such as in the state of Thuringia where party leader Björn Höcke has been labelled in the media as a far-right extremist. 

In January 2024, an article by investigative journalists brought to light secret meetings between AfD members and far-right supporters to discuss plans for mass deportations of foreigners from Germany, were the AfD to come to power. The scandal led to the largest street protests in the country so far this century, with estimates showing as many as 1.4 million people turning out across the country. Some protesters have even gone so far as to call for a constitutional ban against the AfD, claiming that they pose a threat to German democracy. The party suffered a drop in support in the aftermath of the scandal, with their share of prospective voters declining by four percent from their high-point in January of 2024. The Alternative for Germany currently is the party of choice for 18 percent of German voters, which would make them the second largest party in parliament after the Christian Democrats. While no other party currently says they would work with the AfD on a national level, this Brandmauer ("fire wall") may be tested in regional parliaments during 2024, as the party looks set to come first in several states in East Germany during the year.