The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), along with other international climate research institutions, announced last week that 2024 was the warmest year on record (since 1850) - exceeding the 2023 temperature record by another 0.10 degrees Celsius. Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2023 was 1.29 degrees Celsius (2.32 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 20th-century average of 13.9 degrees Celsius (57.0 degrees Fahrenheit), according to research conducted by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
The planet's 10 warmest years since 1850 have now all occurred in the past decade, as global mean surface temperatures (land and sea) diverged between 0.87 and 1.29 degrees Celsius from the 20th century average between 2015 and 2024. And it's unlikely that the planet's hot streak will come to an end this year. While NOAA predicts that there's a less-than-5-percent chance of 2025 beating the 2024 temperature record, there's 99.9-percent chance that it will be one of 10 warmest years in recorded history.
It has now been 48 years since Earth had a cooler-than-average year in 1976, as temperatures have diverged upward from the 20th century average in 49 of the past 50 years. Conversely, just 5 of the the first 90 years of the observance period (i.e. 1850-1939) saw global surface temperatures above the 20th century average of 13.9 degrees Celsius.
In 2024, global temperatures exceeded the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) by 1.46 degrees Celsius (2.63 degrees Fahrenheit), just below the 1.5 degree goal set in the Paris Agreement, which is thought to limit the negative effects of global warming significantly, compared to higher temperature increases. It's important to note that monthly or annual breaches of the 1.5 degree threshold don't mean that the world has failed to reach the goals set in the Paris Agreement. "Temperatures for any single month or year fluctuate due to natural variability, including El Niño/La Niña and volcanic eruptions," the UN notes. "Consequently, long-term temperature changes are typically considered on decadal timescales. Nevertheless, breaches of 1.5°C for a month or a year are early signs of getting perilously close to exceeding the long-term limit."
