Industry revenue of “general freight trucking, long distance, truck-load“ in the U.S. 2011-2023

Demand in the trucking industry is generally driven by the overall health of factory production, retail sales or construction activity. If these industries are doing well, then there is just more stuff to drive around, which translates into increased revenues for trucking companies. One of the main reasons why general freight trucking in the U.S. is witnessing restrained growth is because the overall manufacturing industry has not been in the best of health off late. Gross output increased only marginally from just over 6 trillion U.S dollars in 2014 to 6.2 trillion U.S dollars in 2018. The construction industry is worse off, with revenues falling in 2016 as compared to a decade earlier and the CAGR over 2006-2026 being only 0.7%.

Therefore when the CEO of Knight-Swift Transportation, David Jackson, lowered its earnings guidance for the second half of FY19, it came as no surprise to industry analysts. According to Jackson one of the main factors affecting company growth is overcapacity in the industry. 2018 was a particularly good year for the trucking industry as logistics companies and independent truckers increased their capacity to respond to increasing demand, which was a result of changing shipping patterns, brought on partially by the trade war. This over-enthusiasm resulted in a big increase in the number of trucks on the road and has put a significant strain on the average revenue per truck for most companies in the country.