The Oils & Fats segment has recently become more volatile, with the COVID-19 pandemic having had a negative impact on butter prices as demand in the hospitality sector fell away during the lockdown period. Edible oil prices, in contrast, have reached never-before-seen levels. These changes can be attributed to a variety of different factors, including high product demand and production decline. Over the next couple of years, the segment is expected to grow at a gradual level, with one of the key drivers for this growth being the increasing demand for processed food.
The Oils & Fats segment faces a number of challenges and uncertainties. It is directly affected by increasing input costs as well as disruptions in production and logistics, e.g., the Russia-Ukraine war, which has had a heavy impact on the market since both countries are key producers of sunflower oil. Moreover, consumer attitudes and behaviors also have an effect on this segment, e.g., preferring edible oils that are made from soybean stems over genetically modified seeds and avoiding products that show a potential link between deforestation and increasing soybean production. The macroeconomic environment also affects the market: Supply is influenced by the current slowdown in economic growth and the occurrence of unforeseen events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
With rising consumer interest in leading a healthier lifestyle, healthy fats and oils, such as extra virgin olive oil and plant-based butter, are currently trending in this segment. Moreover, the demand for high-oleic oils has also increased as prices have become more reasonable.
Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the total consumer spending on food, which comprises all private household spending on food that is meant for at-home consumption (out-of-home consumption is not accounted for).Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a top-down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Food market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year.
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