eCommerce - Japan

  • Japan
  • Revenue in the eCommerce market is projected to reach US$155.10bn in 2023.
  • Revenue is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2023-2027) of 9.75%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$225.00bn by 2027.
  • With a projected market volume of US$1,319.00bn in 2023, most revenue is generated in China.
  • In the eCommerce market, the number of users is expected to amount to 111.9m users by 2027.
  • User penetration will be 78.5% in 2023 and is expected to hit 92.8% by 2027.
  • The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to amount to US$1.60k.

Key regions: United States, Asia, China, Japan, South Korea

 
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Analyst Opinion

In the last decade, the eCommerce market has evolved from a simple concept of brick-and-mortar retail to a shopping ecosystem that involves multiple devices and store concepts. Many players from both online and offline retail are moving towards multi-channel strategies and are continuously reinventing the way we shop online. Expectations are growing rapidly as customers discover more convenience on all levels – be it product customization, mobile-optimized search, quick checkout processes, or hassle-free delivery.

In 2021, the percentage of consumers who made at least one purchase online in the previous 12 months grew to 74% of population in the U.S., 81% in the UK, and 69% in China. In developed countries, the market is in its maturity phase, and the competition among eCommerce players is extremely high and cost-intensive. Marketplaces such as Amazon and AliExpress are flourishing, while many stand-alone retailers struggle to find their USP, as brand and store loyalty are decreasing and cart abandonment rate in the industry is high. Increasing brand engagement can be achieved through community building (e.g., ASOS Marketplace), loyalty programs, and a seamless mobile and desktop user experience.

Chinese key market players such as Alibaba Group, JD, and Pinduoduo jointly contribute to the comprehensive eCommerce ecosystem in China – and are increasingly penetrating other promising Asian markets, such as Indonesia and India. The Chinese population is tech-savvy and mobile-first, and Chinese eCommerce giants are therefore constantly pushing technology forward. They have diversified into literally every sphere that comes in touch with online retail, from payments to logistics. Current developments in China will – to a large extent – define the next decade’s global eCommerce.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Data refers to B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the sale of physical goods via a digital channel to a private end consumer. This definition encompasses purchases via desktop computers (including notebooks and laptops) as well as purchases via mobile devices (e.g., smartphones and tablets). The following are not included in the eCommerce market: digitally distributed services (see instead: eServices), digital media downloads or streams, digitally distributed goods in B2B markets, and the digital purchase or resale of used, defective, or repaired goods (reCommerce and C2C). All monetary figures refer to the annual gross revenue and do not factor in shipping costs.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a combined top-down and bottom-up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies and industry associations, third-party studies and reports, survey results from our primary research (e.g., Statista Global Consumer Survey), data on shopping behavior (e.g., Google Trends, Alibaba Trends), and performance factors (e.g., user penetration, price/product). Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations such as GDP, consumer spending, internet penetration, and population. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing are well suited for forecasting digital products and services due to the non-linear growth of technology adoption. The main drivers are GDP per capita, consumer spending per capita, internet penetration, and population.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is considered at a country-specific level. The impact of the Russia/Ukraine war is considered at a country-specific level.

Overview

  • Revenue
  • Key Players
  • Analyst Opinion
  • Sales Channels
  • Users
  • Demographics
  • Global Comparison
  • Social Commerce
  • ReCommerce
  • Methodology
  • Key Market Indicators
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