A recession is due in the U.S. in 2023, according to a majority of macroeconomists in a June 2022 survey. Opinions varied, however, on when in 2023 this new recession could start exactly. Most respondents - 38 percent - believed the economic downturn most likely start in the first half of 2023. Meanwhile, 30 percent said that it would begin in the latter half of that year. Most Americans thought differently on this topic, believing that the country was already experiencing an economic recession in June 2022. The macroeconomists cited both geopolitical tensions and the increasing costs of energy as the main reasons why pressure would remain on U.S. inflation.
Most likely starting quarter of the next recession according to macroeconomists in the United States, as of June 2022
The survey question phrased by the source asked in which starting quarter the next U.S. recession - as defined by the NBER business cycle dating committee - would most likely start.
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Chicago Booth. (June 12, 2022). Most likely starting quarter of the next recession according to macroeconomists in the United States, as of June 2022 [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved February 15, 2025, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1027931/start-date-next-recession-usa/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed
Chicago Booth. "Most likely starting quarter of the next recession according to macroeconomists in the United States, as of June 2022." Chart. June 12, 2022. Statista. Accessed February 15, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1027931/start-date-next-recession-usa/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed
Chicago Booth. (2022). Most likely starting quarter of the next recession according to macroeconomists in the United States, as of June 2022. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: February 15, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1027931/start-date-next-recession-usa/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed
Chicago Booth. "Most Likely Starting Quarter of The next Recession According to Macroeconomists in The United States, as of June 2022." Statista, Statista Inc., 12 Jun 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1027931/start-date-next-recession-usa/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed
Chicago Booth, Most likely starting quarter of the next recession according to macroeconomists in the United States, as of June 2022 Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1027931/start-date-next-recession-usa/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed (last visited February 15, 2025)
Most likely starting quarter of the next recession according to macroeconomists in the United States, as of June 2022 [Graph], Chicago Booth, June 12, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1027931/start-date-next-recession-usa/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed