Evolution of voting intentions in the Canadian federal election 2021

Published by Lucie Jeudy, Sep 22, 2021

Two years ahead of schedule, federal elections were held on September 20, 2021 in Canada. Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party had lost its absolute majority in the 2019 elections, and on August 15, 2021, the Prime Minister, who was then in a strong position in the polls, asked the Governor General to dissolve Parliament.

The day after the dissolution was announced, the Liberal Party was leading the Conservative Party by five points in the polls. However, while Canadians' voting intentions changed only slightly, the gap between the two dominant parties narrowed, and on September 17, three days before the election, the parties of Justin Trudeau and Erin O'Toole won 32 and 33 percent of voting intentions respectively, with the Conservatives overtaking the Liberals by one point.

If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?

Characteristic	Conservative Party of Canada (Erin O'Toole)	Liberal Party of Canada (Justin Trudeau)	New Democratic Party of Canada (Jagmeet Singh)	Bloc Québécois (Yves-François Blanchet)	People's Party of Canada (Maxime Bernier)	Green Party of Canada (Annamie Paul)	Maverick Party (Jay Hill)	Another party
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Source

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Release date

September 2021

More information

Region

Canada

Survey time period

August 16 to September 17, 2021

Number of respondents

2,147 respondents

Age group

18 years and older

Special properties

eligible voters

Method of interview

Online survey

Supplementary notes

The question was phrased by the source as follows: "Si des élections fédérales avaient lieu aujourd’hui, pour quel parti auriez-vous l’intention de voter?"

The source adds the following information:
"An oversampling of 604 respondents was conducted in Quebec"
"The Bloc Québécois was posted only to respondents in Quebec and the Maverick Party only to respondents in Alberta and Manitoba."
"In the event that a respondent was undecided, the following question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote for? If you have already voted in advance, please indicate which party you voted for."