Russia: crude oil production forecast 2015-2040

Following the energy transition scenario, which was characterized by extensive governmental support, rapid technological development, and prioritization of zero or low-carbon energy, the volume of crude oil production in Russia would decrease by over 120 million metric tons between 2015 and 2040. Considering no major technological innovations, according to the conservative expectation, the production volume would be reduced to 485 million metric tons at the end of the forecasted period.

Forecasted crude oil production volume in Russia from 2015 to 2040, by scenario*

Reported dataConservativeInnovativeEnergy transition
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Source

Release date

June 2019

Region

Russia

Survey time period

2015

Supplementary notes

* According to the source, the conservative scenario "describes the prospects for world energy in the framework of current technological and regulatory trends. There are no technological revolutions."

The innovative scenario "is based on the premise of accelerated development of new technologies and their transfer from the developed to the developing countries at a rate twice as fast as now." It "assumes strengthening of the already adopted national priorities in promoting renewable energy sources, supporting electric transport and boosting energy efficiency."

The energy transition scenario "envisions that in addition to rapid development of new technologies and their falling costs, there will also be extensive governmental support in the form of direct financial subsidies, standards for producers, ambitious targets, etc." It "projects that priority will always be given to zero or low-carbon technologies."

** Forecasted data.

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