Energy contribution to GDP by scenario Russia 2040

According to the conservative scenario, the contribution of the fuel and energy complex to the gross domestic product in Russia would increase by approximately 150 billion U.S. dollars between 2015 and 2035, after which it would fall to nearly 413 billion U.S. dollars by 2040. Following that pathway, the industry's share in the country's GDP would be measured at almost 17 percent by the end of the forecasted period. The innovative and energy scenarios, which predicted the same figures, estimated the contribution at over 349 billion U.S. dollars in 2040.

Contribution of the fuel and energy complex to the gross domestic product (GDP) in Russia in 2015 with a forecast until 2040, by scenario* (in billion U.S. dollars)

Characteristic	Reported data	Conservative	Innovative and energy transition
-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-

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Release date

June 2019

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Region

Russia

Survey time period

2015

Supplementary notes

* According to the source, the conservative scenario "describes the prospects for world energy in the framework of current technological and regulatory trends. There are no technological revolutions."

The innovative scenario "is based on the premise of accelerated development of new technologies and their transfer from the developed to the developing countries at a rate twice as fast as now." It "assumes strengthening of the already adopted national priorities in promoting renewable energy sources, supporting electric transport and boosting energy efficiency."

The energy transition scenario "envisions that in addition to rapid development of new technologies and their falling costs, there will also be extensive governmental support in the form of direct financial subsidies, standards for producers, ambitious targets, etc." It "projects that priority will always be given to zero or low-carbon technologies."

** Forecasted data.

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