Predicted physician shortage U.S. 2032

By the year 2032, a shortage of 46,000 to 121,900 physicians is expected in the United States, including a shortage of approximately 25,000 to 65,000 surgical specialists. This statistic shows the predicted shortage of physicians and specialists in the U.S. by 2032.

Predicted shortage of physicians and specialists in the U.S. by 2032*

Characteristic	Low estimate	High estimate
All physicians	46,900	121,900
Primary care physicians	21,100	55,200
Specialists	24,800	65,800
Surgical specialists	14,300	23,400

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Release date

April 2019

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Region

United States

Survey time period

2017

Supplementary notes

* As of 2017

Note: The range of the projected shortfall for total physicians is smaller than the sum of the ranges of the projected shortfalls for the specialty categories. The demand scenarios modeled project future demand for physician services, but scenarios can differ in terms of whether future demand will be provided by primary care or nonprimary care physicians. Likewise, the shortfall range for total nonprimary care is smaller than the sum of the shortfall ranges for the specialty categories.

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