Russia: COVID-19 influenced bank RWA 2020-2021

The crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and sinking oil prices was expected to affected risk-weighted assets' (RWA) value held by Russian banks. Namely, under every stress scenario, experts forecasted a decline in RWA levels for 2020-2021 years compared to the 2019 figures.

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Estimated risk-weighted assets (RWA) value of the Russian banking system for 2020 and 2021 in view of coronavirus (COVID-19), by stress scenario* (in trillion Russian rubles)

Characteristic	RWA value in trillion Russian rubles
2019 data	83.9
Moderate	83
Negative	82.5
Severe	81.9

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Release date

March 2020

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Region

Russia

Survey time period

March 2020

Supplementary notes

* According to the source, the severe scenario estimates that the critical phase of the crisis to last through the whole 2020, with the negative trend continuing until the end of 2021. Under such setting, the losses of the banking sector can be comparable to that of 2008.

The negative scenario implies that the critical phase of the crisis will end after the first half of 2020, with the negative trend continuing for another year,

The moderate scenario will not lead to losses in the banking sector, but it will still require significant efforts from the players to maintain the quality of the portfolios. According to this scenario, the critical phase of the crisis and the negative manifestations will affect only 2020.

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