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Forecasted inflation rate in Italy 2020-2022

According to data published in November 2020, consumer price inflation is expected to fall slightly below zero this year. This means that consumer prices are going to decrease due to generally lower demand in comparison to the supply of goods and services. Particularly affected by the drop are the service sector, oil demand, and the domestic demand in general.

Changes in consumption

In this scenario, a change in consumers' behavior should be expected as well. Prices might decrease but the purchasing power is not necessarily going to rise. When the unemployment rate rises and salaries drop, purchasing power decreases. Indeed, the unemployment rate in Italy is forecasted to reach 9.9 percent in 2020. In the first quarter of 2020, the rate stood at 9.1 percent, the lowest figure of the last years. In an uncertain economic situation, people tend to spend less money. This can be seen in the development of the savings rate of Italian households. As a consequence of the current coronavirus crises, in 2020 this figure is projected to increase significantly compared to the previous years.

Impact of COVID-19

Italy's economy was particularly hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, Italy's GDP is expected to drop by 9.3 percent in 2020, according to data published in October 2020. An economic outlook published in December 2019 had originally forecasted a slight growth in Italy’s GDP for 2020. However, these estimations could not have taken into account the economic impact COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, Italian exports are estimated to decrease by over 16 percent in 2020. However, both figures are projected to experience an increase in 2021.

Forecasted inflation rate in Italy from 2020 to 2022

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Source

Release date

November 2020

Region

Italy

Survey time period

2020 and 2022

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Statistics on "Inflation and price indices of Italy"

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