COVID-19 reported and extrapolated prevalence, April 2020

In a McKinsey briefing note on COVID-19, population antibody surveys suggest that official counts of coronavirus are underestimating the true number of cases by a factor of five or more (although in several cases the methodology has been called into question). This statistic shows the reported prevalence and the extrapolated prevalence from sample-based testing in select locations as of April 29, 2020.

Reported and extrapolated prevalence of COVID-19 in select locations worldwide as of April 29, 2020*

Characteristic	Reported prevalence (confirmed cases/population)	Extrapolated prevalence (from sample-based testing)
New York City (PCR testing)	1.9%	15.4%
New York State (antibody testing)	1.5%	14.9%
Gangelt, Germany (antibody testing)	0.4%	14%
Geneva (antibody testing)	1%	5.5%
Los Angeles (antibody testing)**	0.1%	5.6%
Santa Clara (antibody testing)**	0.05%	4.2%

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Release date

May 2020

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Region

Germany, Switzerland, United States (California, New York)

Survey time period

As of April 29, 2020

Supplementary notes

Approximate data count for NYC PCR testing: 200 patients who delivered infants at one hospital. Approximate data counts for antibody testing:
New York State 7,500; Germany 1,000; Geneva 27,000; Los Angeles 800; Santa Clara 3,000.

* New York City and State results not corrected for test accuracy.

** Higher estimates from a range.

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