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Reported vs extrapolated prevalence of COVID-19, select locations, as of April 2020

Published by John Elflein, Jul 21, 2020
In a McKinsey briefing note on COVID-19, population antibody surveys suggest that official counts of coronavirus are underestimating the true number of cases by a factor of five or more (although in several cases the methodology has been called into question). This statistic shows the reported prevalence and the extrapolated prevalence from sample-based testing in select locations as of April 29, 2020.

Reported and extrapolated prevalence of COVID-19 in select locations worldwide as of April 29, 2020*

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In cooperation with
McKinsey
Release date

May 2020

Region

Germany, Switzerland, United States (California, New York)

Survey time period

As of April 29, 2020

Supplementary notes

Approximate data count for NYC PCR testing: 200 patients who delivered infants at one hospital. Approximate data counts for antibody testing:
New York State 7,500; Germany 1,000; Geneva 27,000; Los Angeles 800; Santa Clara 3,000.

* New York City and State results not corrected for test accuracy.

** Higher estimates from a range.

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