• Russia: forecast growth of premiums written by scenario 2021

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For 2021, the baseline scenario estimates projected the most significant drop of 25 percent for life insurance premiums in Russia relative to 2020. To compare, the conservative scenario forecast the largest decline for voluntary medical insurance premiums at nine percent. Premiums written for compulsory automobile liability insurance were not expected to suffer from the coronavirus-related crisis in the country.

Estimated growth rate of premiums written in the Russian insurance market in 2021, by type and scenario*

Characteristic	Baseline scenario	Conservative scenario
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Release date

April 2021

More information

Region

Russia

Survey time period

2021

Supplementary notes

* The baseline scenario implies that the insurance market will recover at a moderate pace, following a smooth economic recovery. The gradual expansion of consumer and investment demand will have a positive impact on the dynamics of the insurance market.

The conservative scenario implies that the market will shrink slightly, but not by more than one percent. The conservative scenario will be implemented in the case of a slower economic recovery, continued weak business activity and reduced consumer demand over the long term. In both scenarios, the further development of the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation and the duration of the recession in the global economy continue to be factors of uncertainty.

** Compulsory automobile liability insurance.

*** Life insurance premiums growth rate under baseline scenario at around 25 percent. Under conservative scenario between 15 to 13 percent.