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Impact of COVID-19 on projected GDP growth in East Africa in 2020, by country

The economy's growth in the East African region is expected to have a significantly drop due to coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The GDP growth for 2020 has been revised downwards from 5.1 percent to 1.2 percent in a baseline scenario (when the virus is contained by the third quarter of 2020), and to 0.2 percent in a worst-case scenario (when COVID-19 persists to the end of 2020). Before the health crisis, all East African countries were expected to have a positive growth, except for Sudan due to conflicts. The situation might change dramatically for Seychelles, Burundi, Somalia, Comoros and South Sudan, as the countries are expected to have a negative growth due to the pandemic.

Despite coronavirus (COVID-19), Tanzania may register the highest economic growth in East Africa. The country's GDP before the pandemic was projected to 6.4 percent. With the health crisis, the projection was reduced to 5.2 percent in a baseline scenario and to four percent in a worst-case scenario. Rwanda (4.2 percent), Ethiopia (3.1 percent), Uganda (2.5 percent), Kenya (1.4 percent), and Eritrea (0.3 percent) are also expected to keep a positive growth even if the pandemic persists till the end of 2020.

The East Africa's economies are transitioning from agriculture to services. The region's growth is boosted by strong public spending in infrastructure, growing domestic demand, stability, new investment opportunities, and incentives for industrial development.

Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on projected GDP growth in East Africa in 2020, by country

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Source

Release date

July 2020

Region

Africa

Survey time period

2020

Supplementary notes

Assumptions:
1) Baseline scenario: pandemic subsides in July 2020
2) Worst scenario: pandemic continues to December

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Statistics on "Coronavirus (COVID-19) in East Africa"

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