Forecast impact of coronavirus on real GDP growth in Kenya 2020-2023
Kenya’s GDP was estimated to contract by 0.3 percent in 2020, as an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. Considering a baseline scenario, the forecasts pointed out a strong rebound for the Kenyan economy in 2021, with an expected 4.5 percent growth of the Gross Domestic Product. Besides being an economic powerhouse in East Africa, Kenya is also one of the countries with more COVID-19 cases in the region. As of August, 2021, more than 208.3 thousand people were already infected by the virus in the country.
Recovery through key sectors
According to governmental data, the strongest impact of the coronavirus crisis on the Kenyan economy was felt in the second quarter of 2020. Within this period, the country’s GDP decreased by 5.5 percent, the first negative growth in recent years. The third quarter of 2020 followed the negative tendency but already showed a recovery, with the GDP growth rate measured at minus 1.1 percent. A sectoral strong performance contributed to the rebound. Mining and quarrying, and construction grew by 18 percent and 16 percent, respectively, while favorable weather conditions supported robust growth in agricultural activities.
COVID-19 and disruptions in East Africa
As in Kenya, other East African nations are expected to feel the impact of COVID-19. Over 350 thousand people were infected by the disease in the region since the beginning of the pandemic. To curb the spread of the virus, most of the countries in the region adopted restrictive measures, such as lockdown, curfew, and interruption of international flights. Consequently, the GDP in East Africa was revised downwards from 5.1 percent to 0.2 percent in 2020, considering a worst-case scenario, when COVID-19 would persist to the end of the year. Before the health crisis, all East African countries were expected to grow, except for Sudan due to conflicts.
Recovery through key sectors
According to governmental data, the strongest impact of the coronavirus crisis on the Kenyan economy was felt in the second quarter of 2020. Within this period, the country’s GDP decreased by 5.5 percent, the first negative growth in recent years. The third quarter of 2020 followed the negative tendency but already showed a recovery, with the GDP growth rate measured at minus 1.1 percent. A sectoral strong performance contributed to the rebound. Mining and quarrying, and construction grew by 18 percent and 16 percent, respectively, while favorable weather conditions supported robust growth in agricultural activities.
COVID-19 and disruptions in East Africa
As in Kenya, other East African nations are expected to feel the impact of COVID-19. Over 350 thousand people were infected by the disease in the region since the beginning of the pandemic. To curb the spread of the virus, most of the countries in the region adopted restrictive measures, such as lockdown, curfew, and interruption of international flights. Consequently, the GDP in East Africa was revised downwards from 5.1 percent to 0.2 percent in 2020, considering a worst-case scenario, when COVID-19 would persist to the end of the year. Before the health crisis, all East African countries were expected to grow, except for Sudan due to conflicts.
