Forecast impact of coronavirus on real GDP growth in Kenya 2020-2022
The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Kenya was estimated to contract by one percent, assuming that the economic effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic weaken during the first half of 2021. However, forecasts pointed out a strong rebound for 2021, with the GDP growth at 6.9 percent, under the same baseline assumptions, which consider the availability of vaccines and additional therapeutic treatments. As of January 13, 2020, there were more than 98.5 thousand confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Kenya.
Moreover, the pandemic is expected to affect dramatically the economy in East Africa. The GDP in the region was revised downwards from 5.1 percent to 1.2 percent in a baseline scenario (when the virus is contained by the third quarter of 2020), and to 0.2 percent in a worst-case scenario (when COVID-19 persists to the end of 2020). Before the health crisis, all East African countries were expected to have a positive growth, except for Sudan due to conflicts.
Moreover, the pandemic is expected to affect dramatically the economy in East Africa. The GDP in the region was revised downwards from 5.1 percent to 1.2 percent in a baseline scenario (when the virus is contained by the third quarter of 2020), and to 0.2 percent in a worst-case scenario (when COVID-19 persists to the end of 2020). Before the health crisis, all East African countries were expected to have a positive growth, except for Sudan due to conflicts.
