Recession cause according to U.S. bankers 2022

United States banking professionals believed in Q2 2022 that a Fed overcorrection was a probable cause for a recession. 51 percent of the respondents believed that the too fast and too highly increasing Fed rates would result in an economic recession. 25 percent of the respondents predicted that a recession would occur because of supply chain problems, while five percent mentioned the conflict in Eastern Europe as the main cause for a possible recession.

Banker opinion on possible causes of a recession in the United States as of 2nd quarter of 2022

Characteristic	Share of respondents
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Release date

July 2022

More information

Region

United States

Survey time period

June 21 to June 30, 2022

Number of respondents

388 respondents

Special properties

CEOs, presidents, CFOs, COOs

Method of interview

Email survey

Supplementary notes

This question was answered only by those respondents who in another question predicted a recession in 2022 or 2023 (96 percent of all respondents). The question was phrased by the source as follows: "What is the primary reason for your selection of if and when a recession will occur?"
The source adds the following information: Out of the 388 respondents, 127 were CEOs, 32 were presidents, 211 were CFOs, and 18 were COOs. Figures have been rounded.
* Of the 16 percent of respondents who chose "other", many cited a combination of some or all of the mentioned reasons.

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