Brexit: forecast impact of EU-UK trade agreement on GDP by 2022

In December 24, 2020, the European Union and the United Kingdom signed the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) after years of negotiations following the Brexit decision of June 2016. According to the winter economic forecast published by the European Commission, the impact of the trade agreement on the United Kingdom's gross domestic output (GDP) is predicted to lead to a loss of about 2.25 percent by the end of 2022. This was lower than the previous forecast, which was based on a no-deal scenario trading under WTO terms. The impact of the trade agreement on the EU's GDP is forecast to be significantly lower at about 0.5 percent.

Forecast impact of EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) by 2022

Characteristic	Impact on UK GDP	Impact on EU GDP
-	-	-
-	-	-

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Release date

February 2021

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Region

United Kingdom, EU

Survey time period

2020

Supplementary notes

The WTO scenario in this statistic is taken from the Autumn Economic Forecast published by the European Commission prior to the signing of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). That model was based on a no deal scenario with trade under World Trade Organisation's (WTO) MFN principles.

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