Projected level 2-4 AVs sales' share of total vehicle sales, by automation level

Level 2-4 autonomous vehicle sales as a share of total vehicle sales in 2025 and 2030, by automation level

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Source

Release date

December 2020

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2020

Supplementary notes

Level 2 entry (sometimes also referred to as L2+ or L2 hands-free): vehicles with these capabil­ities have basic ADAS that can steer, accelerate, and brake. Such systems usually use cameras and radar sensors, and drivers must typically have their hands on the steering wheel. The system will remind drivers if it does not detect steering action during a brief period of time.
Level 2 advanced: vehicles are equipped with features (such as Tesla’s Autopilot and GM Super Cruise) that allow drivers to take their hands off the wheel for longer periods where that is legal. But even with this degree of free­dom, drivers must always monitor the systems and road. In addition to cameras and radar sensors, Level 2 advanced systems typically include driver-monitoring cameras, highly accu­rate maps, and a central and high-performance ADAS computer.
Level 3 traffic-jam pilot: this system helps cars autonomously navigate crowded roads. Drivers do not have to monitor conditions constantly but must be able to take control rapidly. In addition to all Level 2 technologies, these systems will probably include LiDAR sensors, enhanced sensor fusion (combining sensor data from several sources to reduce uncertainty), and redundancy in control units and actuation.
Level 3 highway pilot: this system is similar to traffic-jam pilot but Level 3 highway pilot helps vehicles navigate crowded situations at higher speeds. Drivers do not have to monitor conditions constantly but must be able to take control rapidly. Compared with Level 3 traffic-jam pilots, Level 3 highway pilot systems might face additional challenges securing legal approval for several reasons, such as the complexity involved in quickly transferring responsibility to the driver if a system reaches its performance boundaries. In addition to all Level 2 technologies, these systems will probably include LiDAR sensors, enhanced sensor fusion (combining sensor data from several sources to reduce uncertainty), and redundancy in control units and actuation.
Level 4 highway pilot: these systems contain all Level 3 technologies and have additional AD capabilities that allow vehicles to operate safely in emergencies: for instance, they can stop autonomously in emergency lanes. Drivers there­fore will not need to assume control at short notice when the vehicle is in charge and will be able to take their eyes off the road to engage in more extensive side activities. Within the pri­vate AV space, we expect Level 4 systems to focus initially on highway driving.

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