L4/5 autonomous vehicle sales: share of total vehicle sales

In a base case scenario, around 10 percent of all vehicles sold in China in 2035 should be Level 4 or Level 5 autonomous vehicles. In a disruptive scenario, the share of autonomous vehicle sales should amount to some 66 percent of total vehicle sales in 2035.

Level 4/5 autonomous vehicles as a share of total vehicle sales in selected regions in 2035, by scenario

Characteristic	Base case	Disruptive
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Release date

June 2020

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2020

Supplementary notes

Under the base case scenario, conditions for the adoption of autonomous vehicles are similar to those in 2018. A disruptive scenario, on the other hand, presumes that significant changes relating to autonomous vehicles will occur in the coming years, such as the passing of favorable regulation, widespread social acceptance of autonomous vehicles, and further technological innovation.

Level 4 "Brain off": Driverless during defined use cases. Vehicle in charge of lateral and longitudinal control in many situations. Minimized risk of accidents.
Level 5 "No driver": Vehicle in charge of lateral and longitudinal control in all situations. Depending on use case, no steering wheel and/or pedal required.

* The Euro5 consists of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy.

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