Rail freight activity forecast 2050

Rail freight activity reached some 9,800 billion tonne-kilometers worldwide in 2015. This volume is projected to grow in 2030 and 2050, reaching over 28,000 billion tonne-kilometers by 2050 under the Recover post-COVID-19 scenario. Projections forecast activity to be lower by some 1,094 billion tonne-kilometers under the Reshape scenario, and it is predicted to drop to around 25,200 billion tonne-kilometers using the Reshape+ predictions.

Projections for global rail freight activity between 2015 and 2050 (billion tonne-kilometers)

Characteristic	Rail freight activity in billion tonne-kilometers
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Release date

May 2021

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Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

as of 2015

Supplementary notes

Three different scenarios for post-COVID-19 pandemic are presented here. The recover scenario assumes governments will prioritize economic recovery by reinforcing established economic activities. The reshape scenario assumes governments will adopt decarbonization policies after the pandemic. The reshape+ scenario includes governments taking advantage of decarbonization opportunities initially created by the pandemic, reinforcing the efforts outlined by the reshape scenario.

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