Global projected frequency of extreme temperatures 2021

Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, are likely to become more frequent or more intense within the next few years. The risk of extreme temperature events, currently expected to occur once every 50 years, will be nearly 39.2 times more likely to occur at global warming level of 4.0°C.

Projected frequency of semi-centennial extreme temperature events worldwide due to global warming as of 2021

Characteristic	Frequency per fifty years
1°C	4.8
1.5°C	8.6
2°C	13.9
4°C	39.2

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Release date

2021

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2021

Special properties

frequency in intensity of extreme temperature event that occurred once in 50 years on average in a climate without human influence.

Supplementary notes

Projected changes are shown at global warming levels of 1°C, 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C and are relative to 1850-1900 representing a climate without human influence. The frequencies of 50-year extreme events from the base period.

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