Global CO2 emissions outlook by region 2050

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to remain the largest emitter of carbon dioxide over the coming decades. Forecasts show that emissions in the Asia-Pacific region could grow to 21.3 billion metric tons of CO2 (GtCO2) by 2030. Although emissions are expected to decline in the following years, they will remain well above 2020 levels by 2050. CO2 emissions in the Asia-Pacific region have increased massively since the 1960s, primarily driven by the economic growth of China. North America and Europe have historically been the two biggest polluters worldwide, but by emissions in these regions could be lower than Africa by 2050, should NDCs be achieved.

Regional carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions worldwide from 2000 to 2020, with a forecast until 2050 (in million metric tons of carbon dioxide)

Characteristic	Europe	Asia-Pacific	Africa	Middle-East	North America	Latin America	CIS
2050*	986	12,684	2,347	1,670	764	1,377	1,469
2045*	1,196	15,532	2,244	1,788	1,217	1,525	1,638
2040*	1,481	17,840	2,106	1,979	1,800	1,647	1,830
2035*	1,917	20,147	1,924	2,100	2,301	1,690	2,046
2030*	2,499	21,251	1,751	2,148	3,074	1,700	2,278
2025*	3,179	20,830	1,557	2,185	4,366	1,618	2,489
2020	3,546	18,977	1,286	2,078	5,078	1,478	2,461
2015	4,084	17,869	1,307	2,060	5,780	1,851	2,474
2010	4,469	15,400	1,145	1,740	6,175	1,690	2,569
2005	4,774	11,822	964	1,342	6,565	1,477	2,461
2000	4,601	8,298	770	1,037	6,553	1,334	2,357

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Release date

2022

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Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2000 to 2020

Supplementary notes

*Forecast.
CO2 emissions are from the combustion of fossil fuels and industrial processes. Excludes CO2 emissions from the agriculture, land use, land use change, forestry, and animal husbandry.

Forecasted emissions are based on the successful achievement of NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) announced in the 2015 Paris agreement (not including most recent updates). In this scenario, sustained economic development in emerging countries drives global energy demand, but NDCs play a key role in controlling the pace of growth. This scenario is compatible with a global temperature rise between 3 degrees Celsius and 4 degrees Celsius.

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