Traditional Medicaid savings from Medicaid expansion in select U.S. states as of 2020

U.S. states refusing to expand Medicaid often cite high cost as a reason. However, according to this data, the state of Virginia was able to save up to an estimated 85 percent of expected state expansion costs in 2020, just from savings to traditional Medicaid. This is because the federal matching rate is much higher for Medicaid expansion than traditional Medicaid. States pay roughly 25 to 50 percent of the cost for a traditional Medicaid beneficiary, but only 10 percent of the cost for an expansion beneficiary. Virginia is estimated to save 221.4 million U.S. dollars in FY2020, which amounts to roughly 85 percent of its expected state expansion costs in 2020. While there are large variations between states, expansion states may also see reduced spending outside of Medicaid, such as in the areas of uncompensated care and mental health and substance abuse treatment. By reducing the number of uninsured, states can potentially make savings in these other programs that support the uninsured.