U.S. transportation CO₂ emissions by fuel type 2050

Transportation-related emissions from petroleum in the United States are expected to drop from 1.72 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂) in 2022 to 1.55 GtCO₂ in 2050. Meanwhile, emissions from electricity are projected to increase at an average of 5.9 percent annually between 2022 and 2050, reaching 28 MtCO₂ in the latter year.

Projections for transportation-related carbon dioxide emissions in the United States from 2022 to 2050, by fuel type (in million metric tons of CO₂)

Characteristic	Petroleum	Natural Gas	Electricity
2050	1,550	53	28
2049	1,539	52	27
2048	1,532	51	27
2047	1,527	50	27
2046	1,520	49	26
2045	1,514	48	26
2044	1,510	47	26
2043	1,507	46	26
2042	1,505	46	25
2041	1,504	45	24
2040	1,504	44	23
2039	1,506	43	22
2038	1,510	43	21
2037	1,516	42	20
2036	1,523	42	19
2035	1,534	42	18
2034	1,544	41	17
2033	1,556	41	16
2032	1,569	41	14
2031	1,586	40	13
2030	1,605	40	12
2029	1,626	40	11
2028	1,645	40	10
2027	1,652	42	10
2026	1,665	44	9
2025	1,680	45	8
2024	1,699	47	7
2023	1,711	50	6
2022	1,720	54	5

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Release date

March 2023

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Region

United States

Survey time period

2022

Supplementary notes

Based on the AEO2023 baseline Reference case, which considers only the laws and regulations adopted through mid-November 2022 under evolutionary technological growth assumptions, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Petroleum emissions include those from international bunker fuels, both civilian and military, which are excluded from the accounting of carbon dioxide emissions under the United Nations convention. Natural gas emissions include pipeline fuel natural gas and natural gas used as fuel in motor vehicles, trains, and ships. Electricity emissions are those from the electric power sector distributed to the end-use sectors based on their share of total electricity consumption.

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