Natural gas share in residential heating in the EU 2017-2040, by forecast scenario

Share of natural gas in space and water heating of residential and tertiary buildings in the European Union in 2017, with a forecast for 2030 and 2040, by scenario

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Release date

June 2022

Region

EU

Survey time period

2022

Special properties

Tertiary buildings refer to buildings occupied by the service sector.

Supplementary notes

The forecast scenarios reflect the potential transformation of the heating sector based on different decarbonization assumptions:

Direct-RES: focus on installations of heat pumps, biomass boilers, and solar thermal collectors.
Electrification: focus on introducing more district electric heating and heat pumps.
E-fuels: focus on gas-based heating systems and liquid fuel heating systems.
Hydrogen: focus on gas-based heating systems.
District heating: focus on biomass and solar thermal collectors.
Best case: comparative assessment of all other scenarios yielding best possible result.

More information on methodology is available on pdf page 74 of the report.

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