Road vehicles emitted more than six billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂) in 2023. Under the IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario, in which all climate commitments, Nationally Determined Contributions, and longer-term net zero targets are met, CO₂ emissions from road vehicles would fall by 60 percent by 2050, to around 2.4 GtCO₂. Meanwhile, emissions under the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 scenario would decrease by some 95 percent by mid-century from 2023 levels, to less than 400 MtCO₂.
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from road transportation worldwide in 2023, with projections to 2050, by scenario
(in million metric tons of carbon dioxide)
The source provides the following information: "The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) explores how energy systems evolve under today’s policies and private sector momentum. The scenario is not developed with a particular outcome in mind, but rather explores where current efforts are likely to lead global energy systems. The STEPS does not take for granted that all government targets will be achieved. Instead, it takes a granular, sector-by-sector look at the concrete policies and measures in effect as of August 2024, and assesses their impact on energy demand and supply. The STEPS also takes into account private sector action, including fuel production and manufacturing capacity of clean energy technologies, and assesses how these market dynamics impact future trends.
The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes that governments will meet all climate commitments, including their Nationally Determined Contributions and longer-term net zero emissions targets. The APS starts from the policies and trends in the STEPS and identifies additional efforts needed to reach national climate and energy targets. In some cases, one national target may require other targets to not be achieved exactly by the date or in the manner specified. In most cases, national long-term net zero emissions targets are achieved in the APS. Still, other interim targets have a strong influence on the pathways in which countries achieve their long-term targets. Countries without ambitious long-term pledges are assumed to benefit in this scenario from the accelerated cost reductions and wider availability of clean energy technologies.
The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario depicts a narrow but achievable pathway for the global energy sector to reach net zero energy-related CO₂ emissions by 2050 by deploying a wide portfolio of clean energy technologies and without offsets from land-use measures. It recognizes that achieving net zero energy sector CO₂ emissions by 2050 depends on fair and effective global co-operation, with advanced economies taking the lead and reaching net zero emissions earlier in the NZE Scenario than emerging market and developing economies. This scenario also achieves universal modern energy access by 2030, consistent with the energy-related targets of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The NZE Scenario is consistent with limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C (with at least a 50% probability) with limited overshoot".
Road transport refers to all road vehicle types (passenger cars, two/three-wheelers, light commercial vehicles, buses and medium and heavy freight trucks).
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IEA. (October 15, 2024). Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from road transportation worldwide in 2023, with projections to 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of carbon dioxide) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved February 08, 2025, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1550771/road-transportation-co2-emissions-by-scenario/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed
IEA. "Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from road transportation worldwide in 2023, with projections to 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of carbon dioxide)." Chart. October 15, 2024. Statista. Accessed February 08, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1550771/road-transportation-co2-emissions-by-scenario/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed
IEA. (2024). Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from road transportation worldwide in 2023, with projections to 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of carbon dioxide). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: February 08, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1550771/road-transportation-co2-emissions-by-scenario/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed
IEA. "Carbon Dioxide (Co₂) Emissions from Road Transportation Worldwide in 2023, with Projections to 2050, by Scenario (in Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide)." Statista, Statista Inc., 15 Oct 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1550771/road-transportation-co2-emissions-by-scenario/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed
IEA, Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from road transportation worldwide in 2023, with projections to 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of carbon dioxide) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1550771/road-transportation-co2-emissions-by-scenario/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed (last visited February 08, 2025)
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from road transportation worldwide in 2023, with projections to 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of carbon dioxide) [Graph], IEA, October 15, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1550771/road-transportation-co2-emissions-by-scenario/?__sso_cookie_checker=failed