Forecast for 2012 election in swing states

This survey shows a forecast of swing state voter results in the 2012 election, assuming a matchup between Barack Obama and either one of the remaining GOP candidates. If Mitt Romney was the elected candidate, a matchup with Barack Obama would result in a close tie. As of January 24 to 28, Mitt Romney would get about 48 percent of the votes; Obama 47 percent. If the pairing resulted in Newt Gingrich versus Obama, the outcome would be a victory for Obama. He would get 54 percent of the votes; Gingrich would be far behind with about 40 percent.

Forecast for possible GOP candidates vs. Obama in swing states in the 2012 election on January 2012

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Release date

January 2012


United States

Survey time period

January 24-28, 2012

Number of respondents

737 registered voters

Age group

18 years and older

Special properties

citizens of swing states

Method of interview

Telephone interview

Supplementary notes

The swing states are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
During the survey, this question was posed as follows: "If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney; former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich; Texas Congressman Ron Paul; former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for?"

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