Projected market penetration of autonomous vehicles in the United Kingdom 2015-2030

This statistic depicts the projected market penetration of autonomous vehicles in the United Kingdom from 2015 to 2030, by level of automation. It is predicted that connected cars will reach 55 percent market penetration in 2016. The production of level 3 automated vehicles (driver does not need to monitor the dynamic driving task nor the driving environment at all times) is forecast to reach a peak of 88 percent before trending downwards due to growth in the levels 4 (driver is not required during defines use cases) and 5 (system performs the lateral and longitudinal dynamic driving task in all situations encountered during the entire journey) market segments.
The market share of connected cars is estimated to reach a 100 percent penetration rate by 2026. Compared to this estimation, the projection for the penetration rate of L3 and L4/5 autonomous vehicles is not as fast. It is expected that the penetration rate for L3 autonomous vehicles will reach its peak in 2028 and decline from there on, reaching 75 percent in 2030. The penetration rate of L4/5 is expected to reach 25 percent by 2030.

Projected market penetration of autonomous vehicles (including cars, trucks, and pods) in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2015 to 2030, by level of automation

Connected car penetrationL3 production penetrationL4/5 production penetration
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Sources

Release date

March 2015

Region

United Kingdom

Survey time period

2015

Supplementary notes

Definitions from source:
* L3 - Conditional automation: Driver does not need to monitor the dynamic driving task nor the driving environment at all times; must always be in a position to resume control. System performs longitudinal and lateral driving task in a defined use case. Recognises its performance limits and requests driver to resume the dynamic driving task with sufficient time margin.

** L4 - High automation: Driver is not required during defined use case. System performs the lateral and longitudinal dynamic driving task in all situations in a defined use case.

** L5 - Full automation: System performs the lateral and longitudinal dynamic driving task in all situations encountered during the entire journey. No driver required.

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