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Permian output forecast under Biden's federal lease limits in the U.S. 2025

Monthly Permian basin oil production under federal lease restrictions in the United States from January 2020 to January 2021, with a forecast until December 2025, by location and scenario

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Release date

March 2021


United States

Survey time period

January 2020 to January 2021

Supplementary notes

* Data from February 2021 is forecasted.

The source provides the following information on reference scenarios:
"Reference Case: This serves as the benchmark and assumes little-changed leasing, permitting and drilling from first-quarter 2021 levels.
Hybrid Case: It assumes no new federal leasing, but existing leaseholders continue receiving drilling permits. Permit reviews are more rigorous, leading to slower approvals and a costlier operating environment beginning in 2022. Based on companies’ public statements, firms that hold acreage across the basin gradually relocate drilling rigs and completion crews to their nonfederal locations.
Restrictive Case: No new federal permits or extensions are granted starting in 2023. This is when the most-recently issued permits will expire. The existing permitting freeze adversely affects production in the near-term due to a lack of approvals of permit modifications and pipeline rights-of-way. As in the Hybrid Case, companies shift their focus to nonfederal acreage."

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