Share of people who think Brexit was the right or wrong decision 2020-2023

As of March 2023, 53 percent of people in Great Britain thought that it was wrong to leave the European Union, compared with 33 percent who thought it was the right decision. During this time period, the share of people who regret Brexit has been slightly higher than those who support it, except for some polls in Spring 2021, which showed higher levels of support for Brexit. The share of people who don’t know whether Brexit was the right or wrong decision has generally been stable and usually ranged between 11 and 14 percent.

Is Bregret setting in?

Since late July 2022, the share of people who regret Brexit in these surveys has consistently been above 50 percent. The fall in support mirrors the government’s sinking approval ratings, especially since the ruling Conservative Party, along with former Prime Minister Boris Johnson are heavily associated with Brexit and the Leave vote. The surge in support for Brexit that occurred in Spring 2021 may have been related to the United Kingdom’s fast rollout of vaccinations for COVID-19. Compared to other major European countries, the UK had managed to vaccinate a far higher share of its population by Spring 2021, although other countries did catch up in the summer. The relatively fast procurement process of the UK was contrasted with a more cautious bureaucratic EU, supporting some of the key sentiments that drove the Brexit vote.

Leave victory in 2016 defied the polls

In the actual referendum, which took place on June 23, 2016, Leave won 51.9 percent of the votes and Remain 48.1 percent, after several polls in the run-up to the referendum put Remain slightly ahead. Remain was anticipated to win until early results from North East England showed that Leave had performed far better than expected, with this pattern replicated throughout the country. This event was repeated somewhat in the U.S. election of that year which saw Donald Trump win several key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, despite predictions that these states would vote for Hilary Clinton.