Climate migrant outlook worldwide by region 2050

More than 170 million people worldwide may be internally displaced by 2050, due to slow-onset impacts of climate change. This is based on a pessimistic scenario of high greenhouse gases emissions and unequal development. In a more climate-friendly scenario, this figure would still add up to some 125 million climate migrants, while a more inclusive development would lead to roughly 78 million migrants. In all three scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa would see the largest number of displacements resulting from shifts in water availability, crop productivity, and sea level rise within the six regions evaluated.

Projected number of internal climate migrants displaced worldwide by 2050, by region and scenario (in millions)

Characteristic	Pessimistic	More climate-friendly	More inclusive development
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Release date

September 2021

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2021

Special properties

average figures

Supplementary notes

According to the source, "the three climate migration scenarios are defined as:
Pessimistic: reference scenario, with high global greenhouse gas emissions and an unequal development pathway;
More inclusive development: equally high emissions, but a more equal development pathway.
More climate-friendly: lower emissions, combined with an unequal development pathway."

Climate-driven migration refers to "migration that can be attributed largely to the slow-onset impacts of climate change on livelihoods owing to shifts in water availability and crop productivity, or to factors such as sea-level rise or storm surge".

Figures only includes internal displacement. It does not consider cross-border migration, or shorter-term mobility (such as seasonal or cyclical migration).

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