In 2020, the child and old-age dependency ratios in China ranged at around 26 and 18.2 percent respectively, summing up to a total dependency ratio of 44.1 percent. While the child dependency ratio is expected to drop slightly and then remain stable, the old-age dependency ratio will rise steadily in coming decades.
Age demographics in China
With a populace of 1.4 billion people by the end of 2021, China stands the country with the largest population in the world. Since its foundation in 1949, the PRC has experienced high population growth. With the beginning of the reform period in the end of the 1970s, population growth decreased steadily and fell to below 0.1 percent annually recently. Falling birth rates in combination with higher life expectancy led to a continuously increasing median age of the population in China over the past five decades. The median age of the Chinese population is expected to rise further and to reach 50 years by the middle of the century.
Development of the dependency ratio
China has enjoyed a continuously growing work force since the late 1970s. Simultaneously, the total dependency ratio in China decreased from almost 70 percent in 1980 to about 37 percent in 2010. However, an important turning point was reached in 2011, as total dependency ratio was set to increase again after 30 years of population bonus. As can be seen from the above graph, until 2100, child-dependency is estimated to remain steady around 20 percent. Old-age dependency on the other hand is expected to grow from about 12 percent in 2010 to over 65 percent in 2060, implying a growing number of senior citizens that need support from the working population. The shift of age demographics in the near future in China is bound to have ineligible economical and social impacts. To learn more about age demographics in China, take a look at our dossier aging population in China.
Children, old-age, and total dependency ratio in China from 1950 to 2020 with forecasts until 2100
Characteristic
Child dependency ratio
Old-age dependency ratio
Total dependency ratio
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The dependency ratio denotes the relationship between economic dependent age groups (people who are either too old or too young to work) to those of a working age. Those who are defined as being able to work, by the source, are those between the ages of 15 and 64. The dependency ratio indicates how great a burden is placed on those of a working age by those of a non-working age. The old-age dependency rate is even higher considering the current retirement age of 60 for men, 55 for female civil servants and 50 for other female workers.
For statistical purposes, the data apply to mainland China only, not including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan.
Estimated figures from 2030 to 2100 have been based on a medium variant model.
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UN DESA. (July 11, 2022). Children, old-age, and total dependency ratio in China from 1950 to 2020 with forecasts until 2100 [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved June 18, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/251535/child-and-old-age-dependency-ratio-in-china/?locale=en
UN DESA. "Children, old-age, and total dependency ratio in China from 1950 to 2020 with forecasts until 2100." Chart. July 11, 2022. Statista. Accessed June 18, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/251535/child-and-old-age-dependency-ratio-in-china/?locale=en
UN DESA. (2022). Children, old-age, and total dependency ratio in China from 1950 to 2020 with forecasts until 2100. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: June 18, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/251535/child-and-old-age-dependency-ratio-in-china/?locale=en
UN DESA. "Children, Old-age, and Total Dependency Ratio in China from 1950 to 2020 with Forecasts until 2100." Statista, Statista Inc., 11 Jul 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/251535/child-and-old-age-dependency-ratio-in-china/?locale=en
UN DESA, Children, old-age, and total dependency ratio in China from 1950 to 2020 with forecasts until 2100 Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/251535/child-and-old-age-dependency-ratio-in-china/?locale=en (last visited June 18, 2024)
Children, old-age, and total dependency ratio in China from 1950 to 2020 with forecasts until 2100 [Graph], UN DESA, July 11, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/251535/child-and-old-age-dependency-ratio-in-china/?locale=en