Monthly VLSFO bunker oil price worldwide 2024

In March 2024, the average monthly price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) stood at 664.5 U.S. dollars per metric ton. The price of VLSFO is strongly influenced by external factors, such as the price of crude oil and market forces of supply and demand. In the past two years, two separate events have had a profound effect on the price of VLSFO: the International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulfur cap on fuel oil in 2020 and, more recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli invasion of Gaza.

Effects of the 2020 IMO sulfur cap

In January 2020, a new limit on the sulfur content in fuel oil was introduced by the IMO. The goal of the cap was to reduce the concentration of sulfur in the air, thus reducing air pollution and preventing harm to marine ecosystems as well as protecting human health. Ship operators were forced to switch to VLSFO to comply with the new regulation, leading to a higher demand for VLSFO which in turn caused the price of VLSFO to increase to 649 U.S. dollars per metric ton in January 2020.
Shortly afterward, the world was hit with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. With production facilities shutting down worldwide, maritime transport considerably slowed, driving the price of VLSFO to a historic minimum of 251 U.S. dollars per metric ton in April 2020.

Escalating conflict in Ukraine could raise fuel prices

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, most of the West reacted by imposing sanctions on Russia to weaken its economy. Although vital for the Russian economy, the Russian oil industry remained untargeted by direct sanctions during the first days of the invasion. However, sanctions cutting off Russia’s access to international financial markets and the SWIFT payment system, as well as divestments of Western oil companies from the Russian oil industry, could severely impact the country’s oil sector. In 2020, Russia was the third-largest producer of crude oil in the world, accounting for about 12 percent of the world’s crude oil production. Disruptions to the Russian oil industry could, therefore, have consequences for the supply of oil to the global market and drive prices up. Since crude oil is the main component of VLSFO, an increase in the price of crude oil will most likely lead to a rise in the price of VLSFO.