Consumption of cheese in the Netherlands 2010-2025 

* Figures are forecast

With regard to policy, the projection assumes that the Netherlands may apply the derogation and that the system of phosphate quotas which was introduced in 2018 will be upheld with no change. This limits the future development of the cattle herd. Ammonia could emerge as an even more limiting factor than phosphate, but it is unclear at this moment how regional management will develop. In November 2018, the European Court issued a ruling forcing the Netherlands to adjust its policy. According to the court, the Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen (PAS) program implemented in 2015 is insufficient. As of yet it is unclear how this will develop. The same applies to the impact of climate policy on dairy farming; this too is not yet clear and therefore not included in the analysis.