United Kingdom

Brexit: what next?

Today is (another) big day for Brexit, but as usual it's anyone's guess what the outcome will be. Parliament is due to vote on Boris Johnson's Brexit deal, and while it is essentially a simple 'yes' or 'no' decision, as this flowchart based on analysis by the Independent's John Rentoul highlights, the situation is very far from straightforward.

Following the smoothest route, the deal and any amendments would be passed by Parliament and the EU, leading to the UK leaving the EU on the 31 October deadline as currently set out by Article 50. Of course we could also be staring down the barrel of an early election or, if current form continues, deadlock, dither and an even longer delay.

Description

This flow chart covers potential Brexit scenarios and likely outcomes after the vote on the Brexit deal on 22 October 2019.

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Results of key votes on Brexit in the United Kingdom House of Commons from 2019 to 2020
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Forecasted Bank of England (BoE) policy rate under different UK referendum scenarios for EU exit 2016-2019, by scenario
If Britain leaves the EU and does not sign any new trade deal with the rest of the EU, would that be good or bad for Britain?*
Overall, which of the following do you think the UK should try to do when it comes to our future trading relationship with the European Union (EU)?
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Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
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How do you intend to vote in response to the question: should the United Kingdom exit the EU?

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