German Snap Election: What the Polls Say

The latest polls ahead of Germany's snap election all paint a roughly similar picture: the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) with Friedrich Merz is expected to win the largest share of the vote, albeit by a narrower margin as was predicted a couple of months ago. The far-right populist AfD will likely be the second strongest faction in the new Bundestag with around 20 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, the members of the unpopular traffic light coalition are all expected to lose considerably compared to the 2021 election, with the Social Democrat Party (SPD) and the liberal democrats (FDP) set to take the heaviest losses. The latter may not even make it to the next parliament, as most polls have the FDP below the 5 percent threshold that a party needs to clear to enter the Bundestag.

The predicted outcome would make it impossible for the CDU to form a majority government with its historically preferred partner, the FDP. Since every party has ruled out working with the AfD, the most likely outcome is a so-called grand coalition between CDU and SPD under Friedrich Merz as chancellor. While this may be the only stable coalition possible to form a government, it has become an unpopular option in Germany after three grand coalitions under Angela Merkel resulted in political standstill. In such a scenario, CDU and SPD would have to overcome their differences and try to work together to bring the country forward. Another failed attempt to do so could further strengthen the far-right AfD.