Mapping Global Drought Risk

By 2050, more than 1.6 billion people, including almost 20 percent of the African population, will be exposed to severe and extreme droughts, if a pessimistic scenario plays out, according to a report by INFORM Climate Change, a collaboration between the EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change and Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.

Somalia, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Mauritania and South Africa are the countries most at risk from drought worldwide. All five countries score over 9 points on the INFORM Risk Index, which measures the likelihood and impact of humanitarian crises. Among the other countries that rank above the “very high risk” threshold of 6.9 are Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. Analysts state that climate change rather than population growth is the biggest driver of increased exposure to droughts.

Droughts often develop slowly, can span across entire regions and last for years. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the risk of droughts around the world, with higher temperatures drying the land and shifting rainfall patterns making water supplies less predictable.

The INFORM Risk Index is developed by the Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre and combines a range of data points into a single score. It helps governments and aid organizations understand where future crises are most likely and how severe they could be.