U.S. Party Affiliation: Countercyclical Tendencies

The midterms are a time when Americans usually let out their frustration with the party in power and the 2026 installment of the U.S. Congressional elections are no exception. They are even seeing a more extreme case of this phenomenon, as in 2026 so far, an average of 49 percent of Americans said they identified as Democrats or leaned towards the party, while only 39 percent said this about the Republican Party. This is according to surveys by Gallup.

In 2024, the year of the last U.S. election and last year of presidency of Democrat Joe Biden, a slim majority of U.S. respondents surveyed said they favored Republicans. 2022, the year of the last midterms, saw a similar scenario. The change is more pronounced during Trump's first term in office, when 47-48 percent said they favored Democrats or leaned towards them in the midterms and prior to Trump's unsuccessful reelection bid vs. 41-43 percent who said this about Republicans.

Under President Barack Obama, alliance still lay with the party in power. During the Democrat's last year in office, 47 percent of Americans identified with or leaned towards the Democratic Party compared to 42 percent who felt the same way about the Republican Party. As seen in presidential approval ratings, Obama was a more popular president, achieving 51 percent approval at the end of his term. Both Biden and Trump proved less popular, at annual average approval ratings between 39 percent and 44 percent.