IMF Upgrades 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.3%

Global growth is expected to remain resilient at 3.3 percent in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest edition of the World Economic Outlook. This is slightly higher than the 3.1 percent forecast published in October 2025. The IMF attributes the resilience to continued investment in artificial intelligence and other technologies, alongside fiscal and monetary support and the adaptability of the private sector, which together are expected to offset headwinds from changing trade policies.

Growth, however, is expected to be uneven. Advanced economies are projected to grow at 1.8 percent in 2026, while emerging markets and developing economies are expected to maintain growth just above 4 percent in both 2026 and 2027. In the United States, the economy is projected to expand by 2.4 percent in 2026, up 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast, following a rebound in activity at the start of the year compared to Q4 2025 after the government shutdown.

China’s growth is forecast at 4.5 percent, also up 0.3 percentage points from the October estimate. The IMF cites lower U.S. effective tariff rates on Chinse goods, following the yearlong trade truce agreed in November, combined with assumed stimulus measures over two years, as supporting factors.

Despite these projections, the IMF warns that the overall outlook remains fragile. It is still uncertain whether artificial intelligence will boost productivity as expected, or whether it could instead trigger an AI-investment bubble. At the same time, the risk of renewed trade conflicts remains high.