Can Europe Keep Ukraine Armed With Limited U.S. Aid?

Over the past two years, Western support for Ukraine has undergone a drastic change, marked by a surge in European commitments and a notable retreat in U.S. engagement. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy's Ukraine Support Tracker, European countries have become the leading providers of government aid to Ukraine, allocating almost €50 billion from January to August 2025, including military, financial and humanitarian support. On the other hand, the United States had committed over €100 billion in government aid under the Biden administration (2022-2024). But as our chart shows, the return of President Trump to office in early 2025 stalled U.S. support, the current administration having paused any new funding. As the war enters its fourth year, Europe's role as the primary backer of Ukraine is now clear, while U.S. aid uncertainty raises questions about the sustainability of Western support in the long term.