How Fast Is the Asian Population Ageing?

The latest revision of UN World Population Prospects reveals that demographic shift is no longer a distant projection but an accelerating reality across parts of Asia, with the share of people aged 65 and over rising fast in several countries. This trend poses a significant challenge in the region for labor markets, public finances and care systems within a single generation. The figures (UN medium-scenario projections) show Japan already far ahead, as older adults made up already around 29 percent of the population in 2020, and are projected to surpass 30 percent in the coming years: 31.1 percent by 2030 and 35.4 percent by 2040. But, as our infographic shows, the more striking story is the pace of change elsewhere.

South Korea and China are among the standout accelerators. Both countries are expected to see their 65+ population shares more than double between 2020 and 2040. In South Korea, this figure is projected to surge from 15.8 percent (2020) to 33.8 percent (2040), while in China, it is expected to rise from 12.7 percent to 26.6 percent. Those trajectories mirror intensifying national concerns about future labor supply and pension burdens, amid persistent low fertility and a shrinking workforce. Meanwhile, rapid ageing is not confined to the region’s richest economies. Thailand and Vietnam start from lower baselines, yet both trend sharply upward by 2040. Both South-East Asian countries are projected to see their 65+ population shares double in twenty-years: Thailand to 25.6 percent and Vietnam to 15.8 percent.