The Super El Niño to Beat All Others?

The World Meteorological Organization predicts the sea surface temperature anomaly in the El Niño/La Niña indicator area in the Pacific Ocean to rise to an average of +2.9° Celsius in the August-September-October period. This would constitute the strongest El Niño since records started in 1950 and could lead to wet and stormy conditions across the entire southern part of the United States starting in the late fall. It could also mean more snowfall in regions that receive precipitation this way. In the Pacific Northwest, the El Niño phenomenon is conversely expected to lead to a dry winter. On a global scale, El Niño could cause very dry conditions in the Amazon, which experts fear is reaching a tipping point, droughts in vulnerable regions of Africa and more excess rainfall in parts of South America, Central Asia and the Horn of Africa.

There have been three episodes of very strong average El Niño temperature anomalies of +2° Celsius or more recorded since 1950 – in 1982 at +2.1° C between November and February, in 1997 at +2.4° C from November to January and in 2015 at +2.6° C, also for the November to January period. This shows that this year's so-called Super El Niño is not only potentially stronger, but also starts earlier. The WMO additionally said its expects ocean temps to rise further and to peak in November. For La Niña, episodes classified as strong (-1.5° C to -1.9° C) happened in 1973, 1988, 1999, 2000, 2008 and 2010.

During the last Super El Niño in 2015, the United States experienced a record cyclone season in the central Pacific (where Hawaii is located) and a 500-year drought in the Caribbean (including in Puerto Rico), while around the world, 2015 became the hottest year on record at the time and saw a devastating drought in Ethiopia and record-breaking wildfires in Indonesia.

While extreme weather phenomena have always existed, the influence of climate change on the increase of global land and sea temperatures is making phenomena fed by El Niño conditions more intense, more frequent and more destructive.