Midterms

Kavanaugh Hearing Energizes the Right Ahead of Midterms

With a little under a month until the midterm elections, the Republican base seems to be showing a renewed interest in the midterm elections.

According to a poll conducted by NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist, in July a little over two-thirds of Republicans viewed the midterms as important compared to roughly 80 percent of Democrats. After the contentious Supreme Court confirmation hearings, which dominated news coverage this month, both Democrat and Republican interest in the elections stand at around 80 percent. The heated hearings brought out unified animosity from the right when three women from Judge Kavanaugh’s high school and college years accused him of sexual harassment and misconduct. Independent enthusiasm for the midterms has remained unchanged.

Up until this point, the Democrats were registering a slight advantage over Republicans in key Congressional House races. New polling indicates that Democrats may have lost some of that edge, which could prove to be detrimental as the midterm count down kicks into full gear. Democrats would need to flip 23 seats to take back control of the House. The Republican base tends to turnout for elections at a higher rate than the Democratic base, particularly in off-year elections or those elections that do not happen during a presidential election year.

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This chart shows the share of Americans who believe the midterms are very important by partisan identification.

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