Iowa Caucus

Iowa Caucus: Haley Catches Up, But Trump Squarely in Lead

Ahead of the Iowa Caucus, Republican candidate for president Nikki Haley has seen an increase in support from primary voters in the state. However, polling averages calculated by website FiveThirtyEight show how former president and 2024 candidate Donald Trump is still squarely in the lead as the vote that is traditionally seen as a bellwether for presidential candidates is going ahead tonight.

While polling averages put Haley at just under 19 percent as of Sunday – opposite Trump’s more than 50 percent – the most recent poll conducted in the state showed that 21 percent of primary voters surveyed by Emerson College favored her. Apart from the Emerson College release, surveys by Selzer & Co., InsiderAdvantage, Suffolk University, Civiqs, Trafalgar Group and Morning Consult were used to calculate averages.

Before Haley’s small surge, Florida governor Ron DeSantis came in second after Trump. He most recently polled at an average of 15.8 percent in Iowa. Political outsider Vivek Ramaswamy reached 6.4 percent as of late.

Nikki Haley served as the governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017 and was the Trump administration’s ambassador to the United Nations between 2017 and 2018. She was a board member at Boeing briefly and is on the board of trustees of Clemson University. Haley has been a supporter of Trump save some recent critical remarks on his electability. She was rumored as Trump’s VP pick in 2020 and she is again in 2024 among much alleged competition from other GOP women. Haley, who is of Sikh descent, was the first Indian American in a presidential cabinet and is the first major Republican candidate of color.

Description

This chart shows the share of Iowa Republican Caucus voters supporting the following candidates for the presidential nomination (in percent).

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U.S. favorability of Trump versus Haley 2023-2024
U.S. 2024 Iowa Republican caucus latest polls December 2023
U.S. adults favorability of Nikki Haley 2024
U.S. Iowa Republican caucus results 2024, by opinion on 2020 election
U.S. Iowa Republican caucus results 2024, by ideology
U.S. Iowa Republican caucus results 2024, by education

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