Politics

Who Will Be the Next UK PM?

So here we are again. Less than seven weeks after a Conservative leadership election lasting longer than the chosen PM's time in power came to an end, another anxious wait to find out who will be taking the reigns of the country is forced upon the UK. This time the process promises to be a far swifter affair, however, with a new leader expected to be announced by the end of next week.

Things can move fast in politics - a fact taken especially seriously in Westminster recently. So while a candidate's chances to become Conservative party leader can rise and fall in the blink of an eye, this initial look at probability, based on bookmakers odds, provides an idea of who is in the running to become the next by-default prime minister.

At the top for now is Rishi Sunak. The ex-chancellor that lost out to Truss in the last leadership race currently has an assessed 60 percent chance of making it second time lucky. Met with dismay in some quarters, including within the Tory party, Boris Johnson has emerged as a strong contender, too. A second stint in Number 10 has a probability of around 30 percent right now, making him the second favorite.

Description

implied probability based on bookmaker odds for the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party

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Conservative party leadership challenge results in the UK 1990-2022
Percentage of votes won in the Conservative party leadership elections UK 2022
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Perception on Boris Johnson as possible Conservative leader Great Britain in 2017
Share of people who think that Boris Johnson should resign as UK Prime Minister 2022
Number of Twitter followers for political party leaders in the UK 2024
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Boris Johnson popularity in Great Britain in 2018, by age group

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