Despite Headwinds: Airlines on Track for a Record Year

The global airline industry is on track to hit new revenue and profit records in 2025 and 2026. According to the latest industry outlook from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), commercial airlines, including passenger and cargo airlines, are expected to surpass $1 trillion in revenue for the first time this year, showing resilience in the face of significant headwinds. This is especially true for the air cargo sector, which successfully weathered the storm after the Trump administration's new tariff policy shook up global trade. Tariff front-loading and subsequent re-routing of global trade flows posed significant operational challenges in 2025, despite which cargo revenue is expected to grow 2.6 percent this year. Despite non-fuel cost pressures, mainly in the form of rising labor and maintenance costs, airline profit margins have recovered from their 2024 dip, promising new industry records in terms of total profit for this year and 2026.

While hailing the industry's performance in a challenging operating environment, IATA's Director General Willie Walsh bemoaned airline profit margins, which he doesn't consider well-aligned with value the industry creates. "They [airlines] stand at the core of a value chain that underpins nearly 4 percent of the global economy and supports 87 million jobs. Yet Apple will earn more selling an iPhone cover than the $7.90 airlines will make transporting the average passenger," Walsh argued.

Looking ahead, the IATA expects industry revenues to reach a historic high of $1.05 trillion in 2026, up 4.5 percent from the expected 2025 total. Passenger revenue is projected to reach $751 billion in 2026, as 5.2 billion passengers are expected to board a commercial plane next year. "Airlines are expected to generate a 3.9 percent net margin and a $41 billion profit in 2026. That’s extremely welcome news considering the headwinds that the industry faces - rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade and growing regulatory burdens among them. Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” Willie Walsh concluded.