U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Drops Sharply After Pre-Tariff Surge

U.S. goods imports fell by almost 20 percent in April as companies tried to come to terms with new realities amid a whirlwind of tariff announcements. While the worst fears didn’t come to pass after President Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs announced on “Liberation Day” for 90 days, the 10-percent baseline tariff on all imports as well as the punitively high tariffs on all imports from China brought the overall tariff rate to a multi-decade high.

According to advance estimates published by the U.S. Census Bureau on Friday, U.S. goods imports amounted to $276.1 billion in April, down $68.4 billion from a record-breaking $344 billion in March, when many companies had hastily increased imports of supplies or finished goods in an attempt to preempt the anticipated tariffs. As our chart shows, the U.S. goods trade deficit was nearly cut in half as a result, going from an all-time high of $163 billion in March to $87.6 billion in April. While that’s the smallest deficit since December 2023, it’s by no means the disruption of trade that many had anticipated.

In fact, looking at the long-term trend in U.S. goods trade, the April figures look like a return to normal after the pre-tariff surge in imports had temporarily inflated the trade deficit, which resulted in negative GDP growth in Q1 2025. For the coming months, trade figures are likely going to be more volatile than usual, as companies closely follow ongoing trade negotiations and try to balance the risks of higher tariffs after the current pause. Once the end of the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause approaches, we’ll likely see an increase in imports in June again, unless comprehensive trade deals have been agreed by then.